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Macro Trading and the Economic Calendar

How rates, growth, inflation and liquidity move indices, bonds, FX and gold; what central banks and the data calendar actually release and when; how to read a decision in a minute; and how to trade around events with defined risk without turning into a pundit.

Module 1: How macro moves markets

The four forces, why markets trade surprises rather than levels, why good news is sometimes bad news, and the reaction function that ties it together.

  1. The four forces: rates, growth, inflation, liquidity10 min
  2. Markets trade surprises, not levels10 min
  3. Why good news can be bad news9 min
  4. The reaction function10 min

Take the module quiz

Module 2: Central banks

The Fed's tools and meeting cycle, dot plots, statements versus pressers and minutes, how the ECB, BoE, BoJ and RBA differ, and reading a decision in sixty seconds.

  1. The Fed's tools and the meeting cycle11 min
  2. Dot plot, statement, presser and minutes11 min
  3. ECB, BoE, BoJ and RBA: how they differ11 min
  4. Reading a decision in 60 seconds, and the pre-FOMC drift10 min

Take the module quiz

Module 3: The data calendar

CPI and PCE, the jobs report and its internals, GDP, ISM and PMI, retail sales, claims and housing, plus release times, revisions, consensus and the whisper.

  1. Inflation: CPI and PCE11 min
  2. The jobs report and its internals11 min
  3. Growth data: GDP, ISM and PMI, retail sales, claims, housing11 min
  4. Release times, revisions, consensus and the whisper12 min

Take the module quiz

Module 4: Bonds and the curve for equity traders

Yields and duration intuition, the 2s10s curve and what inversions do and do not predict, real yields, breakevens and the term premium.

  1. Yields, prices and duration intuition10 min
  2. The 2s10s curve and inversions, honestly10 min
  3. Real yields, breakevens, gold and tech, and the term premium11 min

Take the module quiz

Module 5: Trading around events

Deciding whether to trade a release at all, the first-move fake-out, spread and slippage during data, positioning with defined risk, event setups and the post-event log.

  1. To trade or not to trade the release10 min
  2. The first-move fake-out, spread and slippage10 min
  3. Positioning into events with defined risk11 min
  4. Event-driven setups for ES, NQ, FX and gold, and the post-event log12 min

Take the module quiz

Module 6: Building a macro view without becoming a pundit

A weekly checklist, the primary sources, a four-regime table with historical tendencies, and how macro should and should not change your position size.

  1. The weekly macro checklist and where the data lives10 min
  2. The four-regime table11 min
  3. How macro should and should not change your position size10 min

Take the module quiz

Educational content, not financial advice.