A worked example week

Everything in this course, run for one week. The numbers below are invented to be plausible, not taken from any real week, and the trader in the example is running both a swing book and an intraday book so that both playbooks get exercised. Read each day as: morning sentence, what the live tape did, what the trader did, evening log.

Sunday: the weekly read

Slow series, read once:

Weekly regime: uptrend, growth regime, credit calm, offence leading, OPEX week.

Monday

Morning (10 min). % above 50-day 74%, equal-weight ratio flat for two weeks, net new highs +85 (5-day avg), McClellan oscillator +40 and summation +780 rising. VIX 14.2, VIX/VIX3M 0.88, VVIX 84, equity P/C 10-day 0.58. 10-year 20-day change +12 bp.

Sentence: "Uptrend, broad (EW ratio flat is the one soft spot), VIX 14 contango, hedges cheap, rates background, credit calm, OPEX Friday. → Long swing setups full size; intraday, expect chop until day type proves otherwise."

Live tape. 9:45 ADD +500, 10:30 ADD +300, TICK symmetric ±700, VOLD flat. Chop fingerprint by 10:45.

Trader. Swing: enters one pullback long in a leading sector at full size. Intraday: two small fades at range edges, one winner (+1.2R), one loser (-1R).

Evening. day_type chop, ADD close +240, ratio 1.3, TRIN 0.95, matched yes.

Tuesday

Morning. Breadth unchanged. VIX 13.9. Nothing new. Sentence copied with the date changed. Rushed morning; the reading was skipped and the sentence kept, as Lesson 1 permits.

Live tape. 9:40 ADD +900 and climbing, 10:15 ADD +1,500, VOLD strongly positive and rising, TICK centred +300 with dips to -250 bought inside two minutes, TRIN 0.62. Trend-up fingerprint by 10:20.

Trader. Intraday: switches from fade mode to continuation mode. Two entries on absorbed TICK pulses, both held into the afternoon, +2.4R and +1.8R. No fades attempted all day. Swing: adds a second long, breakout in a semiconductor name, full size.

Evening. day_type trend-up, ADD close +2,050, ratio 5.8, TRIN 0.48, matched partly (morning expected chop; live read caught the trend by 10:20, which is the point of the live read).

Wednesday

Morning. % above 50-day 79%, McClellan oscillator +105 (stretched), equity P/C 10-day 0.52, VVIX 97 (up from 84 in two days with VIX flat at 14.5). Net new highs +140. Equal-weight ratio ticked up yesterday.

Sentence: "Uptrend, broad and now stretched (osc +105, P/C 0.52), VIX 14.5 contango but VVIX rising, credit calm, OPEX Friday. → No new swing longs today (stretched + call-heavy + expiration pinning ahead); manage existing; intraday, chop or reversal more likely than a second trend day."

Live tape. Gap up. 9:45 ADD +1,400, TICK +1,150 at 9:47. By 10:30 ADD +800 and falling, TICK making lower highs (+1,150 → +700 → +400) while price holds near the high, TRIN drifting from 0.7 to 1.1. Reversal-risk fingerprint.

Trader. Intraday: no longs on the gap (internals fading under a flat price). Waits for price: index breaks the 10:30 swing low at 11:05 with TICK -900. Short entry, +1.6R by 13:00, closed. Swing: trails stops up on both positions per the plan; no adds.

Evening. day_type reversal, ADD close -350, ratio 0.7, TRIN 1.35, matched yes. Note added: "VVIX up 13 points in two days with VIX flat; someone buying tail hedges."

Thursday

Morning. % above 50-day 73% (down 6 points in a day), McClellan oscillator +60, VIX 16.1, VIX/VIX3M 0.94, VVIX 104, equity P/C 10-day 0.55, HY OAS 350 (+5 bp). 10-year +18 bp on 20 days, and the day's data release moved it 9 bp yesterday.

Sentence: "Uptrend, breadth pulled back from stretched, VIX 16 contango narrowing, VVIX elevated, credit calm, OPEX tomorrow. → Swing: hold, no adds, stops at plan. Intraday: expiration-eve pinning likely; fade moves away from the big strike, no breakout entries this afternoon."

Live tape. ADD oscillates -400 to +500, TICK symmetric, price rotates around the heavily-optioned strike all afternoon. Chop.

Trader. Intraday: one fade back toward the strike, +0.9R. Swing: one position stopped at the trailed level for +1.5R; the other held.

Evening. day_type chop, ADD close +120, ratio 1.1, TRIN 1.0, matched yes.

Friday (OPEX)

Morning. Breadth flat, VIX 15.8, VVIX 100, credit calm. Sentence: "As Thursday; OPEX today, expect pinning into the close and range expansion next week. → No new swing entries until Monday's read; intraday small."

Live tape. Pinned. Range half the 20-day average.

Trader. Intraday: sits out. Swing: holds the remaining position.

Evening. day_type chop, matched yes. Weekly note: "Breadth broad all week, one stretched reading resolved with a reversal day, VVIX rising into OPEX is the thing to watch Monday. Next week: range expansion post-OPEX; if breadth resumes broad with VVIX falling, resume full size; if VVIX stays above 100 and HY widens, half size."

The week's scorecard

Intraday: +6.9R over five sessions, of which +4.2R came from the one trend day, caught because the live read overrode a stale morning sentence. The biggest contribution of the internals was not those trades; it was the Wednesday gap that was not bought and the Friday that was not traded.

Key idea: In a typical week the routine produces one or two changes of tactic. Those changes, not any single indicator reading, are where internals pay: a trend day traded as a trend day, a stretched gap not chased, an expiration afternoon left alone.

What the trader did not do

• Did not short the "stretched" reading on Wednesday morning. Waited for the internals divergence and then for price.
• Did not treat VVIX rising as a sell signal. Logged it, reduced new exposure, kept positions.
• Did not add to swings on the trend day just because the tape was strong; the swing plan governs swings.
• Did not change the weekly regime because of one reversal day.

None of this promises the week's result. The numbers are invented and a real week can go the other way with identical discipline. What the example shows is the shape of the process: morning sentence, live read, tactic, evening log, and a weekly note that sets up the next Sunday.

Try it: Run the routine for one full week exactly as above, including the scorecard on Friday. Do not change any setup rules during the week. At the end, count the tactic changes the routine produced and write one line about each: did it help, hurt, or make no difference? That is your first week of evidence. Keep going.

Recap

• Sunday sets the slow regime; each morning produces a sentence; the live read at 10:30-11:00 confirms or overrides it; the evening log records the match.
• Most of the value arrives as tactic changes on a few days: trend days followed, stretched gaps not chased, expiration afternoons left alone.
• Swing positions are managed by the swing plan and the regime words; intraday tactics are set by the live fingerprint.
• Stretched readings and rising VVIX are attention prompts, not triggers; price confirms.
• The week ends with a note that sets up the next Sunday, and the log continues without gaps.