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Who is on the other side of your trade?

Lesson 1 · about 8 min

Every trade has two sides. When you click "buy", somebody, somewhere, is clicking "sell" at the same moment, at the same price. That sounds obvious, but most beginners never think about it, and it is the single most useful mental habit you can build before you risk a dollar.

A trade is an agreement, not a purchase from a shop

When you buy a coffee, the shop sets a price and you either pay it or walk away. Markets are not like that. There is no shop. There is a crowd of people, each with their own opinion about what something is worth, and a matching system that pairs up anyone willing to buy at a price with anyone willing to sell at that price.

So when you buy 10 shares at $50.00, the correct way to think about it is:

Someone who already owned those shares decided that $50.00 was a good enough price to give them up. I decided $50.00 was a good enough price to take them.

One of you is going to be more right than the other, at least over the timeframe you both care about. That is not a reason to be scared. It is a reason to ask, before every trade, a simple question: why is this person selling to me, and what do they know or want that I don't?

The other side is usually not who you imagine

Beginners picture the other side as another beginner, sitting at a laptop, guessing. Sometimes that is true. More often the other side is one of these:

Who Why they are trading with you What that means for you
A market maker They quote both a buy and sell price all day and earn the gap between them They are not betting against you; they want volume and a small edge per trade
A fund rebalancing They need to own a fixed percentage of something and are adjusting They do not care about the next five minutes; their timeframe is months
An index fund A stock was added to or removed from an index Mechanical, price-insensitive buying or selling
A company insider They are selling shares they were granted as pay Usually scheduled and not a signal about the company
Another retail trader Same reasons as you, possibly opposite conclusion Neither of you has an obvious informational edge
An algorithm Reacting to your order in microseconds It will not let you get a price that is obviously wrong

The point is not to be paranoid. It is to notice that most of the volume in a liquid market comes from participants who are not trying to outguess you on the next candle. They have different goals, different timeframes and different constraints. That is exactly why trading is possible: people with different needs can both leave a trade happy.

Why "different needs" matters more than "who is smarter"

A pension fund selling a stock in March to pay retirees is not telling you the stock is bad. A market maker selling to you is not telling you the stock is bad either; they will happily buy it back from someone else two seconds later. If you only ever imagine the other side as a smarter version of yourself, you will freeze. If you imagine it as a crowd with mixed motives, you can start looking for situations where the other side is forced or indifferent rather than informed.

That distinction, forced versus informed, is one of the oldest edges in trading, and it starts with simply remembering that there is another side at all.

Key idea: A price is not a fact about the world. It is the level at which, right now, the most eager buyer and the most eager seller agreed. Your job as a trader is to have an opinion about why they agreed there and whether that will still be true later.

The zero-sum trap

You will hear people say "trading is zero-sum: for every winner there is a loser". That is only partly right.

  • In futures and options, one contract's gain is exactly the other contract's loss, before costs. That really is zero-sum, and after commissions and spreads it is slightly negative-sum.
  • In stocks, the company can grow, pay dividends, or get bought out. Two people who trade a stock back and forth can both make money if the business does well, because the pie is getting bigger. Over long horizons, stock ownership is positive-sum.
  • Short-term trading of anything behaves much more like zero-sum, because over five minutes the underlying business has not changed; only the price and the crowd's mood have.

So the honest answer is: the shorter your holding period, the more your profit must come directly out of someone else's pocket, and the more it matters that the someone else was not better informed than you.

What this means in practice

  1. Before you place a trade, say out loud who you think is on the other side and why they are taking it.
  2. If the honest answer is "someone who has been watching this for years and has better tools", pause.
  3. If the honest answer is "someone who has to sell regardless of price" or "a market maker earning a spread", carry on; you may have a real reason to be there.

Try it: Open any free quote page for a large, well-known stock and watch the price for two minutes. Every tick you see is a completed agreement between a buyer and a seller. Try to guess, for a few of them, whether that was a market maker, a fund, or a person like you. You will be wrong a lot, but you will never again see a price as a number that "just moves".

Recap

  • Every trade has a buyer and a seller who agreed on the same price at the same instant.
  • The other side is usually a market maker, a fund, an index, or an algorithm, not a rival beginner.
  • Different participants have different goals and timeframes; that mismatch is what makes trading possible.
  • Short-term trading is close to zero-sum after costs; long-term stock ownership is not.
  • Always ask why the other side is trading with you before you click.

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

The spread of outcomes behind an expectancyA histogram of forty trades: a tall block of small losses on the left, a low spread of larger wins on the right, and a line marking the average outcome.NUMBER OF TRADES051024 LOSSES, AVG −$20016 WINS, AVG +$600EXPECTANCY +$120−$400−$200$0+$200+$400+$600+$800PROFIT OR LOSS PER TRADEexpectancy = (40% × $600) − (60% × $200) = +$120 per trade
Expectancy: the average trade. Forty trades sorted by outcome: 24 small losses and 16 larger wins. Weighting each side by how often it happens gives the average result per trade, marked here by the dashed line at +$120.
One daily candle broken into four six-hour candlesA tall daily candle on the left and the four six-hour candles that make it up on the right, with dashed lines linking the day's open to the first candle and the day's close to the last.ONE DAILY CANDLEFOUR 6-HOUR CANDLEScloseopenhighlow=00:0006:0012:0018:00one dayThe same trading, summed up in one bar or spelled out in four.
How timeframes stack up. A daily candle is not different data, only coarser data: it opens where the first six-hour candle opened, closes where the last one closed, and its wicks reach the highest and lowest prices any of the four touched.