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Annualised return

A return rescaled to a one-year equivalent, which is essential for comparison and routinely abused on short samples.

From a total return over n years: (ending / beginning)^(1/n) - 1. An account going from $30,000 to $52,000 over three years annualises to (52/30)^(1/3) - 1 = 20.1%.

The abuse is in the extrapolation. A 6% month annualised is 101% a year, and quoting it that way implies a repeatability that no month of data supports. Annualising anything shorter than a year is a projection, not a measurement, and annualising a good quarter is the oldest trick in performance marketing. If you must do it, state the period it came from in the same sentence.

Compounding in reverse deserves equal care. A minus 8% month annualises to minus 63.2%, which is equally unrealistic. The honest presentation of short records is the raw period return plus the number of trades behind it - see sample-size-for-edge.

Related: geometric-return, cumulative-return, sample-size-for-edge, risk-adjusted-return

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

The spread of outcomes behind an expectancyA histogram of forty trades: a tall block of small losses on the left, a low spread of larger wins on the right, and a line marking the average outcome.NUMBER OF TRADES051024 LOSSES, AVG −$20016 WINS, AVG +$600EXPECTANCY +$120−$400−$200$0+$200+$400+$600+$800PROFIT OR LOSS PER TRADEexpectancy = (40% × $600) − (60% × $200) = +$120 per trade
Expectancy: the average trade. Forty trades sorted by outcome: 24 small losses and 16 larger wins. Weighting each side by how often it happens gives the average result per trade, marked here by the dashed line at +$120.

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