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Autocorrelation

Correlation of a series with its own past. Positive at lag one means moves tend to continue; negative means they tend to reverse.

Daily equity index returns typically show autocorrelation near zero, often slightly negative at lag one. Squared or absolute returns, by contrast, show strong positive autocorrelation lasting weeks, which is volatility-clustering stated numerically.

It matters for testing as much as for signals. Overlapping observations, such as 20-day forward returns sampled daily, are heavily autocorrelated, which inflates apparent significance because the effective sample is far smaller than the row count. Corrections like Newey-West standard errors or a block-bootstrap handle this.

Worked example: 1,000 daily rows of 20-day overlapping returns contain roughly 50 independent observations. Treating them as 1,000 understates the standard-error by about sqrt(20), or 4.5 times, which can turn noise into a p-value of 0.001.

Related: volatility-clustering, block-bootstrap, embargo-period, mean-reversion-half-life

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