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Book-to-bill ratio

Orders received in a period divided by revenue billed in the same period; above 1 means the backlog is growing, below 1 means it is shrinking.

It is the cleanest leading indicator in cyclical hardware and semiconductor businesses, often turning two or three quarters before reported revenue does. A reading that crosses 1 in either direction usually moves the whole sector.

Single quarters are noisy because large orders land unevenly, so use a rolling three-month or annual figure and compare it with the same point in previous cycles.

Example: Northwind Tools books $889M of orders against $840M of revenue, a 1.06 book-to-bill. The prior year was 0.94, consistent with the 18% backlog increase.

Related: backlog, revenue, guidance, sequential-growth, year-over-year

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