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Dividend discount model

Valuing a share as the present value of its future dividends, most simply as next year's dividend divided by the cost of equity less the growth rate.

The model works where dividends genuinely represent distributable cash: mature utilities, regulated networks, some banks and insurers. It breaks down for companies that return capital through buybacks or reinvest everything.

It is also the clearest illustration of why cost-of-equity and growth matter so much, since the whole valuation sits on the difference between two uncertain numbers in a denominator.

Example: Harbor Row Properties pays $2.40 a share, expected to grow 2.5% with a 7.8% cost of equity. The model gives $2.46 divided by 0.053, or $46.40, against a $43 market price.

Related: cost-of-equity, dividend, perpetuity-growth-rate, discounted-cash-flow, funds-from-operations

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