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Equity risk premium

The extra annual return investors demand for owning stocks rather than government bonds; the largest and least certain input in most valuations.

Historical estimates from long-run stock and bond returns cluster around 4% to 6%, while forward-looking estimates derived from current earnings-yield and expected growth move with prices and can be lower.

Whichever you choose, keep it stable across companies. Varying the premium case by case to justify a target price is the most common way a valuation stops being analysis and becomes decoration.

Example: Northwind Tools is valued using a 4.6% equity risk premium. Raising it to 5.6% lifts the cost of equity to 10.1%, WACC to 8.9%, and cuts the DCF value by roughly 12%.

Related: cost-of-equity, wacc, discount-rate, sensitivity-analysis, earnings-yield

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