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Historical VaR

Value at risk estimated by re-running today's portfolio through actual past returns and reading the relevant percentile.

Take the last 500 trading days, compute what the current book would have returned on each, sort the results, and read off the 5th percentile for a 95% one-day figure. No distributional assumption is required - the shape of the data is whatever it was.

The appeal is honesty about shape: fat tails and skew that actually occurred in the window are preserved. The weakness is that the window is the entire universe of possible events. A 500-day sample ending in a calm period contains no crash, so the model reports that crashes are impossible. Extend the window and you mix in regimes that no longer apply.

Use it with a deliberately long window and check the result against a short one. If the two disagree by a factor of three, the number you are reporting is a statement about the sample period, not about your portfolio.

Related: value-at-risk, parametric-var, monte-carlo-var, stress-testing

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