There are three families of measure: market-based, from breakeven-inflation and inflation swaps; survey-based, from consumer and professional forecaster surveys; and model-based estimates that strip risk premia out of the market measures.
They can disagree sharply. Market breakevens embed a liquidity and inflation risk premium, while consumer surveys are heavily influenced by petrol prices. Anchored expectations mean long-horizon measures barely move when a short-term shock hits, and that anchoring is what makes disinflation cheap in employment terms.
Example: one-year consumer expectations jump from 3.1% to 4.4% after a fuel spike, while the five-year-five-year-forward breakeven moves from 2.28% to 2.31%. Long-run expectations are anchored, so the committee can look through the shock.
Related: breakeven-inflation, five-year-five-year-forward, tips, inflation-targeting