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Interest rate differential

The gap between the short-term interest rates of two currencies, which sets forward points, swap charges and the return on a carry trade.

Almost every financing number in forex reduces to this one figure. It determines forward-points, the sign of your overnight swap-rate, and whether a carry-trade pays. Market expectations of future rates matter as much as current ones, which is why currencies move on central bank language rather than only on decisions.

Traders watch the two-year government bond yield gap as a proxy, because it summarises expected policy over a horizon that matters.

Example: US policy rate 5.00%, Japanese 0.30%, a 4.70% differential. Long USD/JPY in a standard-lot notional of $100,000 earns roughly $4,700 a year in carry before spreads, about $12.88 a day, ignoring the broker's markup.

Related: carry-trade, forward-points, interest-rate-parity

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

Contango and backwardationTwo futures curves against contract expiry: one rising above spot, one falling below it.The same commodity, priced for delivery at different dates.78.0076.0074.0072.0070.00Futures pricespot+1m+2m+3m+4m+5m+6mMonths until the contract expiresspot price74.00CONTANGOlater contracts cost more than spotBACKWARDATIONlater contracts cost less than spot
Contango and backwardation. A futures curve shows what buyers will pay for delivery in one month, two months and so on. When later contracts cost more than the spot price the curve is in contango; when they cost less it is in backwardation.

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