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J-curve

The shape of a private fund's reported returns over its life: negative early as fees and costs are drawn before value is created, then rising as investments mature and are realised.

In the first two or three years the fund has paid management fees on committed capital and holds investments still carried at or near cost, so the net internal-rate-of-return is negative. Nothing has gone wrong; the arithmetic simply cannot show gains yet.

The curve turns as portfolio companies are revalued upward and early exits return cash. A fund's IRR measured at year three tells you almost nothing about its final result, which is why interim rankings of recent vintages are close to meaningless.

Investors building a private programme often commit across several years specifically to overlap curves, so distributions from older funds help meet calls on newer ones. See vintage-year and capital-call.

Related: internal-rate-of-return, vintage-year, capital-call, private-equity, venture-capital, distributions-to-paid-in

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

Payoff of a long call at expiryA flat loss equal to the premium below the strike, turning upward at 45 degrees above it.Profit / loss per share08595115125Strike 105Max loss 3 — the premium paidBreakeven 108Profit keeps growingUnderlying price at expiry
Buying a call: payoff at expiry. A 105-strike call bought for 3 loses that whole 3 if the price finishes at or below 105, breaks even at 108, then gains a dollar for every dollar higher. The loss is capped at the premium; the upside is not capped.

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