The quits rate is the best single read on worker confidence, since people only leave voluntarily when they are sure of finding something better, and it leads wage growth by several months.
The ratio of vacancies to unemployed people is the labour market tightness measure used in the Beveridge curve framework. The central question after 2022 was whether vacancies could fall back to normal without unemployment rising, which is the empirical test of whether the curve is unusually steep.
Example: openings of 7.2 million against 6.8 million unemployed gives a ratio of 1.06, down from a peak of 2.0 and close to the pre-pandemic 1.2. The quits rate at 1.9% is below its 2.3% pre-pandemic norm, suggesting the market has cooled past neutral.
Related: unemployment-rate, establishment-survey, average-hourly-earnings, initial-jobless-claims, nairu