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Market cycle emotions

The familiar loop from disbelief through optimism, euphoria, anxiety, denial, and capitulation that crowds move through in a full cycle.

The sequence is a description rather than a timing tool. Early in an advance, participation is low and the prevailing feeling is scepticism. As the move extends, optimism turns into excitement, then into a sense that the gains are easy, which is when participation and size peak. The decline runs the same ladder backwards: anxiety, denial, fear, capitulation, despondency.

Its usefulness is personal rather than predictive. Knowing where your own feeling sits tells you something about your risk-taking, and the moment when a trade feels obviously safe is worth noticing.

Treat the popular chart of this cycle with care. It is drawn after the fact, the labels are unmeasurable, and it fits every chart in hindsight. It is a language for discussing sentiment, not a signal. See euphoria and capitulation.

Related: euphoria, capitulation, herding, narrative-fallacy

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

The mood around a market cycleA price path rising to a peak and falling to a trough, labelled with the feelings usually attached to each stage of the round trip.PRICETIMEOPTIMISMEXCITEMENTEUPHORIAANXIETYDENIALPANICCAPITULATIONDESPONDENCYHOPEOPTIMISM RETURNSMAXIMUM FINANCIAL RISKMAXIMUM FINANCIAL OPPORTUNITY
The mood around a market cycle. The same price path labelled with the feelings that tend to travel with it, from optimism up to euphoria and down through panic to despondency. Confidence is highest where the most money is already committed and prices are highest.

Educational only, not advice. Spotted an error? Post in Site Feedback.