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Martingale mindset

Believing that doubling after each loss guarantees recovery, which is true only with unlimited capital and no limits.

The martingale system doubles the stake after every loss so that one win recovers everything. It appears to work in small samples, which is what makes it dangerous: most sequences end in a win, and the rare long losing run takes everything at once.

Two constraints break it in reality. Capital is finite, and exposure grows exponentially - ten consecutive losses require a thousand times the original stake. Markets also trend, so the losses are not independent and the long run is more likely than a coin-flip model suggests.

Recognise the disguised versions: averaging down on a fixed schedule, grid systems without a stop, and any account that shows a smooth equity curve with occasional total collapse. See adding-to-losers and risk-of-ruin.

Related: adding-to-losers, risk-of-ruin, gamblers-fallacy, doubling-down

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

Risk of ruin against risk per tradeA curve climbing steeply as the share of the account risked on each trade grows, even though every trade carries a small positive edge.CHANCE OF LOSING THE ACCOUNT0%20%40%60%80%05%10%15%20%25%RISK PER TRADE (% OF ACCOUNT)2% → 1.8%5% → 20%10% → 45%20% → 67%assumes a 52% win rate at 1:1, ruin = account goneruin chance = (0.48 ÷ 0.52) ^ (100 ÷ risk %)
Risk of ruin. The chance of losing the whole account, plotted against the share of it staked on each trade, for a method that wins 52% of the time at even money. The edge is the same all along the curve; only the bet size changes.

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