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Monthly loss limit

A drawdown ceiling for the month that forces a full strategy review rather than another attempt at a comeback.

Monthly limits operate at the strategy level. By the time a month is down 10%, the question is no longer about discipline in the moment; it is whether the edge is still there.

A useful pairing is a limit plus a mandatory action. Example: at minus 8% for the month, size halves for the remainder; at minus 12%, trading stops until a written review is complete. The written part matters because it converts a feeling into a comparison - hit rate, payoff-ratio and expectancy this month versus the trailing twelve.

Be honest about the arithmetic of recovery. A 12% monthly loss needs 13.6% to get back; a 25% loss needs 33.3%. See drawdown-recovery-maths. Limits exist because those numbers get bad faster than intuition expects.

Related: weekly-loss-limit, drawdown-recovery-maths, drawdown-throttle, expectancy

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

An equity curve and its drawdownAn account balance rising over a year, falling from a peak to a trough, then climbing back to the old peak.ACCOUNT EQUITY$20k$12k$8k024681012TIME (MONTHS)PEAK $16,000TROUGH $12,000DRAWDOWN−25%RECOVERY
Equity curve and drawdown. An account balance plotted month by month. The fall from the $16,000 peak to the $12,000 trough is a 25% drawdown, and the shaded area lasts until the balance climbs back to the old peak.
The spread of outcomes behind an expectancyA histogram of forty trades: a tall block of small losses on the left, a low spread of larger wins on the right, and a line marking the average outcome.NUMBER OF TRADES051024 LOSSES, AVG −$20016 WINS, AVG +$600EXPECTANCY +$120−$400−$200$0+$200+$400+$600+$800PROFIT OR LOSS PER TRADEexpectancy = (40% × $600) − (60% × $200) = +$120 per trade
Expectancy: the average trade. Forty trades sorted by outcome: 24 small losses and 16 larger wins. Weighting each side by how often it happens gives the average result per trade, marked here by the dashed line at +$120.

Educational only, not advice. Spotted an error? Post in Site Feedback.