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Moving average as support

The practice of treating a widely watched moving average, such as the 200 day, as a level where buying may appear.

There is no mechanism by which an average of past prices exerts force on the market. Any effect comes entirely from attention: enough participants place orders near the 200 day average that real orders exist there, a mild self-fulfilling-prophecy.

Because of that, the effect is strongest on the most-watched averages on the most-watched instruments, and essentially absent on an obscure 37 period average of a thinly traded name.

The honest way to use it is as a zone of interest rather than a line, and always with a stop. In a genuine downtrend the 200 day average is broken without ceremony, and the number of traders who bought it on the way down is precisely why the decline had buyers to sell into.

Related: self-fulfilling-prophecy, simple-moving-average, support, round-number-level, polarity-principle

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

Support, resistance and the flip between themA price path bouncing three times off a horizontal support line and turning back three times at a resistance line, then breaking above it and settling back onto the same level.RESISTANCESUPPORT62.0056.00breaks aboveold resistance,now supportIllustrative price path: the level stays the same, its role changes.
Support, resistance and the flip. Support is a price where buyers keep stepping in and the fall stops; resistance is a price where sellers keep stepping in and the rise stops. Once price closes above an old ceiling, that same level often acts as the new floor.

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