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Pairs trading

Going long one security and short a related one when their historical price relationship stretches, expecting the spread to revert.

A classic pair involves two companies in the same industry with similar drivers. When the ratio between them moves several standard deviations from its historical mean, the trade buys the laggard and shorts the leader, sizing both legs so the position is roughly market neutral.

The central risk is that divergence is information rather than noise. If one company has genuinely deteriorated, the spread never reverts and the position simply keeps losing on both legs. A hard stop on spread width, and an independent check on whether anything fundamental changed, are the usual defences.

Pairs trading is the simplest instance of statistical-arbitrage and the one most prone to overfitting, since scanning thousands of combinations for historically cointegrated pairs will find many by chance. See backtesting.

Related: statistical-arbitrage, mean-reversion, market-neutral, backtesting, correlation, short-selling

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

Bid-ask spread in an order bookSell orders stacked above buy orders with a gap between the best of each.SELLERS (asks)50.0690050.051,40050.0460050.011,10050.002,30049.99800spread = 0.03BUYERS (bids)
The bid-ask spread. Buy orders sit below, sell orders above, and the gap between the best bid (50.01) and best ask (50.04) is the spread you pay to cross. Bar length shows the size resting at each price.

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