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Portfolio volatility

The standard deviation of the whole book's returns, which is lower than the weighted average of position volatilities unless everything is correlated.

Portfolio volatility is not the average of the parts. For two positions it is sqrt(w1^2 s1^2 + w2^2 s2^2 + 2 w1 w2 s1 s2 r), where w is weight, s is volatility and r is correlation.

The correlation term is the entire point. Two positions each at 20% annualised volatility, equally weighted: at r = 0 the portfolio sits at 14.1%; at r = 0.5 it is 17.3%; at r = 1 it is the full 20%. Diversification is not owning more things, it is owning things whose correlation term is small - and that term is the first thing to move toward 1 in a selloff.

Measured over a rolling window it becomes a live risk gauge. A book whose volatility has doubled while position count stayed flat has quietly doubled its risk through correlation and volatility regime, and needs sizing cut to hold volatility-targeting constant.

Related: correlation-matrix, volatility-targeting, effective-number-of-bets, diversification

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