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Return skew

The asymmetry of a return distribution, which determines whether a strategy makes many small gains and rare large losses, or the reverse.

Negative skew means a long left tail: frequent small winners, occasional catastrophic losers. Option selling, carry trades and mean-reversion strategies are structurally negatively skewed. Positive skew means the opposite - frequent small losses funded by rare large winners - which describes trend following and long-option strategies.

Skew explains why two strategies with the same expectancy feel and behave completely differently. A negatively skewed system shows a smooth equity curve and a high win-rate, flatters every ratio computed on volatility, and then delivers a single loss that erases years. A positively skewed system looks broken most of the time and pays for itself in a few weeks per decade.

Judge a strategy by what its skew implies about the losses you have not seen yet. A record of 200 winning trades in a negatively skewed strategy is not evidence of safety; it is the expected appearance of a system whose loss has not arrived.

Related: fat-tails, r-distribution, outlier-dependence, sortino-ratio

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

The volatility smile across strikesImplied volatility plotted against strike, dipping near the money and turning up at both ends, more steeply on the downside.Implied volatility32%28%24%20%8090110120Puts below the money cost moreFar calls cost more tooLowest IV near the moneyATM 100Strike price
The volatility smile. Options on the same stock and the same expiry are not priced off one volatility. Strikes near the money carry the lowest implied volatility, and it rises towards both ends — usually faster on the downside, which tilts the smile into a skew.

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