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Risk budget

A total quantity of risk allocated across strategies, sectors or time periods, spent deliberately rather than consumed by accident.

Budgeting reframes risk as a finite resource. If the book may carry 6% of max-open-risk, that 6% is allocated - perhaps 3% to the core strategy, 2% to swing positions, 1% to experiments - rather than filled by whichever ideas happened to appear first.

Allocation should follow evidence. A strategy with 400 trades of recorded history and a stable expectancy earns more budget than one with 30 trades; a new idea gets a deliberately small allocation until it has a sample. This is also how you run experiments without betting the account on them.

Review the budget on a schedule, not after every loss. Reallocating in response to the last week's results is performance-chasing at the portfolio level, and it reliably moves capital toward whatever has just finished working.

Related: max-open-risk, portfolio-heat, sample-size-for-edge, risk-contribution

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

The spread of outcomes behind an expectancyA histogram of forty trades: a tall block of small losses on the left, a low spread of larger wins on the right, and a line marking the average outcome.NUMBER OF TRADES051024 LOSSES, AVG −$20016 WINS, AVG +$600EXPECTANCY +$120−$400−$200$0+$200+$400+$600+$800PROFIT OR LOSS PER TRADEexpectancy = (40% × $600) − (60% × $200) = +$120 per trade
Expectancy: the average trade. Forty trades sorted by outcome: 24 small losses and 16 larger wins. Weighting each side by how often it happens gives the average result per trade, marked here by the dashed line at +$120.

Educational only, not advice. Spotted an error? Post in Site Feedback.