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Robustness

The property of a strategy whose results survive small changes to parameters, data, start dates, instruments, and cost assumptions.

Robustness is tested by deliberately trying to break the result. Shift the start date by three months. Shift every entry by one bar. Double the assumed costs. Drop the best 5% of trades. Run it on a related instrument it was not designed for.

A robust strategy gets worse under each of these and stays positive. A fragile one has one test that destroys it. Finding which test destroys it tells you what the strategy actually depended on, which is often something you did not intend.

Example: a futures system returning 14% a year that falls to minus 2% when you delete its ten best days was never a trend system; it was a handful of gap events, and its risk is entirely about whether those recur.

Related: parameter-sensitivity, monte-carlo-simulation, stress-test

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