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Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)

The FOMC's quarterly published forecasts for growth, unemployment, inflation and the policy rate, released in March, June, September and December.

The SEP shows central tendencies and ranges for real gdp growth, the unemployment-rate, headline and core-pce inflation, and the appropriate policy rate, which is rendered as the dot-plot.

Traders read it as a reaction function rather than a forecast. If the committee marks up its inflation forecast without marking up its rate path, that is dovish: it tells you they will tolerate the overshoot. If it marks down unemployment and marks up rates, that is hawkish.

Example: the SEP shifts 2026 core PCE from 2.4% to 2.6% and the median rate dot from 3.375% to 3.625%. The higher inflation is being met with tighter policy, so the front end sells off and the curve flattens.

Related: dot-plot, fomc, core-pce, unemployment-rate, neutral-rate

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