Skip to content
GetProfitable
Search
Dictionary

Treasury basis trade

Long a cash Treasury note or bond and short the corresponding futures contract, earning the difference between the note's carry and the futures' implied financing.

The gross basis is the cash bond price minus the futures price times the bond's conversion-factor. A trader who buys the bond in the repo market and sells futures against it collects coupon income and pays repo, and captures whatever richness sits in the futures leg.

Returns per unit of capital are minuscule, so the trade is run at leverage of fifty to a hundred times through repo financing. That makes it a systemic concern: when repo rates spike or margins are raised, the whole cohort unwinds at once, as in March 2020 when the trade blew out and forced central bank intervention.

The embedded optionality — the short's right to choose which bond to deliver — means the basis is never purely arithmetic. See cheapest-to-deliver.

Example: a note at 99-16 with a conversion factor of 0.8412 against a future at 118-08. Gross basis = 99.50 - (118.25 x 0.8412) = 0.03 points, about $30 per $100,000 face. Only leverage makes that worth the desk space.

Related: cheapest-to-deliver, conversion-factor, implied-repo-rate, treasury-futures, zn

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

Margin and leverageA small deposit controlling a much larger position, and the point at which losses trigger a margin call.Position you controlnotional value $100,000your margin deposit: $5,000$100,000 / $5,000 = 20:1 leverageYour deposit absorbs every dollar of loss$5,000$2,500$0Equity leftMARGIN CALLequity has fallen to $2,5000%1%2%2.5%3%4%5%How far the price moves against you
Margin and leverage. A $5,000 deposit can control a $100,000 position, which is 20:1 leverage. Because the loss is measured on the full $100,000, a 2.5% move against you halves the deposit and brings a margin call, and a 5% move uses all of it.

Educational only, not advice. Spotted an error? Post in Site Feedback.