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Volatility roll yield

The gain or loss from holding a futures position as it converges toward spot; negative in contango, positive in backwardation.

A future priced above spot must fall to meet it if spot does not move. That decline is the roll yield, and for volatility futures it is unusually large because the curve is typically steep — several percent a month rather than the fractions of a percent seen in most financial futures.

This is why short volatility positions have a tailwind and long ones a headwind, independent of any view. It is also why short volatility is so seductive: the position pays you to wait, right up until the day the curve inverts.

Example: front-month volatility future at 17.5 against a spot index of 15. Over 30 days to expiry, with spot unchanged, the future converges to 15 — a 14% gain for a short position and the same loss for a long one, from doing nothing.

Related: volatility-futures, vix-futures-curve, etp-roll-decay, contango

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

Contango and backwardationTwo futures curves against contract expiry: one rising above spot, one falling below it.The same commodity, priced for delivery at different dates.78.0076.0074.0072.0070.00Futures pricespot+1m+2m+3m+4m+5m+6mMonths until the contract expiresspot price74.00CONTANGOlater contracts cost more than spotBACKWARDATIONlater contracts cost less than spot
Contango and backwardation. A futures curve shows what buyers will pay for delivery in one month, two months and so on. When later contracts cost more than the spot price the curve is in contango; when they cost less it is in backwardation.

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