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Opening range breakout

Lesson 12 · about 9 min

This module gives you six setups. Each one is specified the same way: the day type it needs, the trigger, the stop, the target, the R:R table, and the invalidation, the thing that tells you the trade was wrong before the stop is hit. Six is more than you need. Most profitable day traders run two or three. Learn all six so you can recognise which two suit your product, then drop the rest.

The first is the oldest setup in intraday trading: the opening range breakout, or ORB.

The idea

The first five minutes of the session (some traders use 15 or 30) define a high and a low. That range is the market's first estimate of value after the overnight information hits. A break out of it with volume, in the direction of the gap or the overnight trend, is the first clue that the day will extend rather than balance.

  ORB long, 1-minute bars, 9:30 to 9:50

               OR high 100.40 ----------------+-- trigger: 100.45
    |  |                                     _|_
    | | |  |                              _/    \_
   | || | | | |                     ____/         \  <- target 1: 101.20 (1R)
   ||  |   | | | |  |   |     ____/
                |  | | | | |_/
  --------------------------------- VWAP
               OR low 99.60 ----------------------
                                          stop: 99.95 (under OR mid)
    9:30  9:32  9:34  9:36  9:38  9:40  9:42  9:44  9:46

The specification

Day type it needs: a trend day or a gap day. On a range day the ORB fails, usually twice, and the failure is a setup of its own (lesson 3). Module 5 gives you the early tells; before 10:30 you are guessing, so the ORB is taken at reduced conviction and the invalidation rule does the rest.

Trigger: a 1-minute close above the opening range high (long) or below the low (short), with the breakout bar's volume at least 1.5 times the average of the opening range bars. Entry on the close of that bar or a stop order one tick beyond the range.

Stop: for a 5-minute opening range, under the midpoint of the range. For a 15-minute range, under the low. Never inside the range on the 1-minute noise; the range itself is the structure.

Target: the first target is 1R, measured from entry to stop. The second is the next daily level (yesterday's high or low, the overnight high or low, a round number). Take half at 1R, move the stop to breakeven, hold the rest for the level.

Invalidation: a close back inside the range within three bars of the breakout. Exit immediately; do not wait for the stop. A breakout that returns inside the range has already told you the buyers who pushed it out were not followed.

Time window: 9:35 to 10:00 ET. An ORB at 10:45 is a different, weaker trade.

The R:R table

Suppose the opening range is $0.80 wide (99.60 to 100.40), entry at 100.45 and stop at 99.95, so 1R is $0.50.

Outcome Exit Result
Invalidation (back inside range within 3 bars) 100.30 −0.3R
Full stop 99.95 −1R
Target 1 (half), stop to breakeven, rest stopped 100.95 / 100.45 +0.5R
Target 1 (half), target 2 at 101.60 100.95 / 101.60 +1.65R

With a realistic distribution over 100 ORBs, say 30 invalidations, 20 full stops, 25 partial-then-breakeven and 25 full winners:

Expectancy = 0.30 × (−0.3) + 0.20 × (−1) + 0.25 × 0.5 + 0.25 × 1.65 = −0.09 − 0.20 + 0.125 + 0.4125 = +0.25R

Subtract 0.06R for cost (large cap or micro) and you have about +0.19R per trade. Change the invalidation rule to "wait for the full stop" and the 30 invalidations become −1R each: expectancy drops to −0.30 − 0.20 + 0.125 + 0.4125 = +0.04R, which is a losing strategy after cost. The invalidation rule is where the edge lives.

Key idea: The ORB's edge comes from exiting fast when the breakout is not followed, not from the breakout itself. The invalidation exit at −0.3R is what makes a 50% win rate worth trading.

Variants and filters

  • Gap alignment. An ORB long on a stock gapping up is stronger than one on a stock gapping down. Take the ORB only in the direction of the gap for the first attempt.
  • Overnight range for futures. An ORB in ES that also clears the overnight high has two groups of trapped traders behind it. An ORB that stops at the overnight high is likely to fail there; place target 1 at the overnight high in that case.
  • Range width. If the opening range is more than about 1.5 times the average of the last ten days, the stop is too wide for the setup and you should skip it. If it is less than half the average, the range is too narrow to mean anything and breakouts are noise.
  • Second attempt. One retest of a failed ORB is allowed if the first invalidation was small. Two failures and the ORB is off for the day.

What it looks like when it is not there

On a balanced day the opening range is broken both ways within the first 20 minutes, each break returns inside, and price settles near VWAP by 10:00. That is not a bad day for the ORB trader; it is a day the ORB trader watched and did not trade, at a cost of zero, or of two small −0.3R invalidations if they took both attempts. The failed breakout reversal in lesson 3 turns that day into a trade.

Try it: In replay, mark the 5-minute opening range on twenty sessions of your product. Record whether the first break (up or down) extended at least 1R before returning inside. Your answer for that product is a real number that no course can give you.

Recap

  • Trigger: 1-minute close beyond the 5-minute opening range with 1.5× volume, 9:35 to 10:00.
  • Stop under the range midpoint; target 1 at 1R for half, target 2 at the next daily level.
  • Invalidation: a close back inside the range within three bars, exit at about −0.3R.
  • The invalidation exit is where the expectancy comes from; waiting for the full stop turns +0.25R into +0.04R.
  • Take it only with the gap, skip abnormally wide or narrow ranges, and stop after two failures.

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

A range beside a trendOne chart swinging between a flat floor and ceiling, another stepping upwards inside a pair of sloping lines.Range-boundresistancesupportprice bounces between two levelsTrendingthe trend channelhigher highs and higher lowsA range has two flat edges; a trend has two sloping ones.
Range versus trend. On the left price keeps bouncing between the same floor and ceiling, which is a range. On the right each high and each low is higher than the last, inside a pair of sloping lines called a channel.
Risk and reward on one tradeA price scale showing an entry with a stop two points below and a target six points above, so the reward band is three times the risk band.PRICETARGET 106.00ENTRY 100.00STOP 98.00REWARDRISK6.00 pointsthree times the risk2.00 pointsthe most you loserisk : reward = 1 : 3
Risk and reward on one trade. One trade on a price scale: the entry sits 2.00 points above the stop and 6.00 points below the target, so the shaded reward band is three times the risk band. The ratio compares what is lost if the stop is hit with what is gained if the target is reached.
Breakout and retestPrice stalls under one level, pushes above it, comes back to touch it from above, then continues higher.pricetimeold resistancenow support1price keeps stalling2breaks above3pulls back and retests it4and carries on
Breakout and retest. Price stalls under the same level several times, pushes above it, then drops back to touch it from above before carrying on. That touch is the retest, where the old ceiling is tried as a floor. A break that falls straight back under it is a false breakout.