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Pass rates and payout economics

Lesson 2 · about 9 min

Few firms publish their pass rates, and the ones that do tend to do so once, in a good year, or under pressure from a regulator. But you do not need the exact number. You need to understand the shape of the funnel, because it tells you what the rules are optimised for and what your realistic odds look like before you have any personal track record.

A worked funnel

Here is an illustrative funnel for a firm selling a "$50,000" evaluation at $150 with a $3,000 profit target and a $2,000 drawdown. The numbers are made up but sit inside the ranges that have been disclosed publicly or estimated from regulatory filings and firm statements over the past few years.

Stage Count Share of starters Money
Buy an evaluation 1,000 100% $150,000 in fees
Fail, buy one reset 500 50% +$50,000 in reset fees ($100)
Pass the evaluation 120 12% Activation fee, say $100 each
Survive funded stage long enough to request a payout 40 4%
Average total paid per paid trader $2,000
Total payouts $80,000

Fee revenue: $150,000 + $50,000 + $12,000 = $212,000. Payouts: $80,000. The firm keeps roughly $132,000 before its own costs (platform, data, staff, marketing, affiliate commissions). Change the pass rate to 20% and payouts per trader to $3,000 and the firm is still comfortably ahead. Change it to a 40% pass rate and the model breaks. That is why you will never see a 40% pass rate from a firm that is still operating.

Publicly disclosed figures have tended to land in the same neighbourhood: single-digit to low-teens pass rates for one-step evaluations, lower for two-step, and a further sharp drop between "passed" and "received a payout". Treat any firm claiming otherwise as making a marketing claim until they show audited numbers.

Two ratios worth computing

Payout-to-fee ratio. Total dollars paid out divided by total dollars collected in fees. In the funnel above it is 80,000 / 212,000 = 0.38. Some firms have described ratios in this range; a ratio near 1.0 would mean the firm is barely covering payouts from fees and must be earning elsewhere, which raises the question of where.

Expected value of one attempt to you. Suppose you estimate, honestly, that you have a 15% chance of passing and, given a pass, a 40% chance of reaching a first payout averaging $2,000. Then:

  • Probability of getting paid at all: 0.15 x 0.40 = 6%.
  • Expected payout: 0.06 x $2,000 = $120.
  • Cost of the attempt: $150 fee, plus the expected reset (0.5 x $100 = $50), plus activation if you pass (0.15 x $100 = $15). Total about $215.

Expected value: $120 - $215 = -$95 per attempt. For the average participant the evaluation is a negative-expectation purchase, which must be true for the business to exist. Your job, if you proceed, is to be far enough above average that your personal numbers flip positive. Module 3 shows what "far enough" requires.

Key idea: The average participant loses money to the firm, by design. The rules are tuned so that a trader with a modest, real edge and strict discipline can pass, while the impatient, the oversized and the unlucky pay for them.

What the firm needs from you

Once you see the funnel, the rules make sense as business decisions rather than as arbitrary hurdles:

  • Trailing drawdown shortens the time an unprofitable trader survives, so accounts recycle faster and buy resets sooner.
  • Consistency rules stop the one-day gambler from passing on a single lucky trade and then requesting a payout.
  • Minimum trading days ensure a pass reflects several days of behaviour and give the trailing rules time to work.
  • Payout thresholds and splits spread the firm's cash exposure and, on the funded side, keep the cash buffer the firm holds against you.

None of this is hidden. It is written in the terms. The traders who pass are the ones who read the terms as a description of the game and plan for it, rather than as small print to skip.

Try it: Build your own funnel. Estimate your pass probability at 10% (until you have evidence for a higher number), estimate a 40% chance of a first payout given a pass, and put in the real fees for one evaluation you are considering. Compute the expected value per attempt. If it is negative by more than the fee, the plan needs a proven edge first, not another attempt.

Recap

  • Illustrative funnels with 10% to 15% pass rates and low payout conversion produce a comfortably profitable firm; high pass rates would break the model.
  • Compute the payout-to-fee ratio and your own expected value per attempt; for the average trader it is negative.
  • Trailing drawdown, consistency rules, minimum days and payout thresholds are business decisions that keep the funnel profitable.
  • Your goal is to be far enough above the average participant that your personal expected value turns positive, which requires a real, measured edge.

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

The spread of outcomes behind an expectancyA histogram of forty trades: a tall block of small losses on the left, a low spread of larger wins on the right, and a line marking the average outcome.NUMBER OF TRADES051024 LOSSES, AVG −$20016 WINS, AVG +$600EXPECTANCY +$120−$400−$200$0+$200+$400+$600+$800PROFIT OR LOSS PER TRADEexpectancy = (40% × $600) − (60% × $200) = +$120 per trade
Expectancy: the average trade. Forty trades sorted by outcome: 24 small losses and 16 larger wins. Weighting each side by how often it happens gives the average result per trade, marked here by the dashed line at +$120.
An equity curve and its drawdownAn account balance rising over a year, falling from a peak to a trough, then climbing back to the old peak.ACCOUNT EQUITY$20k$12k$8k024681012TIME (MONTHS)PEAK $16,000TROUGH $12,000DRAWDOWN−25%RECOVERY
Equity curve and drawdown. An account balance plotted month by month. The fall from the $16,000 peak to the $12,000 trough is a 25% drawdown, and the shaded area lasts until the balance climbs back to the old peak.