Prop Firm Challenge Calculator
Estimate how many trades a challenge should take at your edge, and how many full-size losses in a row would breach the daily loss or the max drawdown before you get there.
Results
| Risk per trade | $500.00 |
|---|---|
| Profit target | $4,000.00 |
| Expectancy per trade | +0.13R = +$62.50 |
| Trades needed on average Target divided by expected profit per trade. Real sequences vary a lot around this. | 64 |
| Expected days At 2.0 trades per day. | 32.0 |
| Consecutive losses to breach daily loss $2,000.00 limit. Chance of that streak: 9.2%. | 4 |
| Consecutive losses to breach total drawdown $4,000.00 limit. Chance of that streak: 0.8%. | 8 |
A trailing floor follows your equity peak including open profit, so a winning day raises the floor and the same losing streak breaches sooner than the table suggests.
Risk per trade vs consecutive losses to breach
| Risk per trade | Losses to breach daily | Losses to breach total | Chance of the daily streak |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25% | 16 | 32 | 0.0% |
| 0.50% | 8 | 16 | 0.8% |
| 0.75% | 5 | 10 | 5.0% |
| 1.00% | 4 | 8 | 9.2% |
| 1.50% | 2 | 5 | 30.3% |
| 2.00% | 2 | 4 | 30.3% |
| 3.00% | 1 | 2 | 55.0% |
Every input is in the URL, so anyone opening this link sees the same numbers.
How it's calculated
Trailing drawdowns follow your peak, so the same percentage bites harder after a good run. Trades are not coin flips; streak odds are a rough guide.
| Expectancy (R) | winRate × avgR − (1 − winRate) |
|---|---|
| Expected $ per trade | expectancy (R) × account × risk% / 100 |
| Trades needed | ceil(profit target $ / expected $ per trade); none when expectancy ≤ 0 |
| Expected days | trades needed / trades per day |
| Losses to breach | floor(limit% / risk%) for the daily loss and the max drawdown |
| Streak probability | (1 − winRate)^losses, assuming independent trades |
Educational only, not financial advice. The maths is simple arithmetic on the numbers you enter; it knows nothing about your broker, fees, slippage or the market. Questions about the maths? Ask in the forums.