Risk/Reward & Expectancy Calculator
Compare up to three targets for the same entry and stop. Expectancy tells you what a trade is worth on average; the breakeven win rate tells you how often you must be right just to tread water.
Results
| Direction | long |
|---|---|
| Risk (1R) in price | 2 |
| R:R to target 1 | 2.00 |
| Expectancy per trade (R) At a 45% win rate. | +0.35R |
| Expectancy per trade ($) | +$35.00 |
| Breakeven win rate Win rate where expectancy is zero. | 33.3% |
Per target
| Target | Reward (price) | R:R | Expectancy (R) | Expectancy ($) | Breakeven win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1: 104 | 4 | 2.00 | +0.35R | +$35.00 | 33.3% |
Expectancy (R) across win rates
| Win rate | Target 1 (2.0R) |
|---|---|
| 30% | -0.10R |
| 35% | +0.05R |
| 40% | +0.20R |
| 45% | +0.35R |
| 50% | +0.50R |
| 55% | +0.65R |
| 60% | +0.80R |
| 65% | +0.95R |
| 70% | +1.10R |
Every input is in the URL, so anyone opening this link sees the same numbers.
How it's calculated
The grid across 30% to 70% win rates shows how sensitive each target is to being wrong about your hit rate.
| Direction | long when entry ≥ stop, otherwise short |
|---|---|
| Risk (1R) | |entry − stop| |
| Reward | target − entry for longs; entry − target for shorts |
| R:R | reward / risk |
| Expectancy (R) | winRate × R:R − (1 − winRate) |
| Expectancy ($) | expectancy (R) × dollars risked per trade |
| Breakeven win rate | 1 / (1 + R:R) |
Educational only, not financial advice. The maths is simple arithmetic on the numbers you enter; it knows nothing about your broker, fees, slippage or the market. Questions about the maths? Ask in the forums.