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Risk/Reward & Expectancy Calculator

Compare up to three targets for the same entry and stop. Expectancy tells you what a trade is worth on average; the breakeven win rate tells you how often you must be right just to tread water.

Inputs

Below entry means long, above means short.
What you lose when the stop is hit; turns R into dollars.

Results

Headline risk reward numbers
Directionlong
Risk (1R) in price2
R:R to target 12.00
Expectancy per trade (R)
At a 45% win rate.
+0.35R
Expectancy per trade ($)+$35.00
Breakeven win rate
Win rate where expectancy is zero.
33.3%

Per target

Reward and expectancy for each target
TargetReward (price)R:RExpectancy (R)Expectancy ($)Breakeven win rate
1: 10442.00+0.35R+$35.0033.3%

Expectancy (R) across win rates

Expectancy in R per target at win rates from 30% to 70%
Win rateTarget 1 (2.0R)
30%-0.10R
35%+0.05R
40%+0.20R
45%+0.35R
50%+0.50R
55%+0.65R
60%+0.80R
65%+0.95R
70%+1.10R
Every input is in the URL, so anyone opening this link sees the same numbers.
Risk and reward on one tradeA price scale showing an entry with a stop two points below and a target six points above, so the reward band is three times the risk band.PRICETARGET 106.00ENTRY 100.00STOP 98.00REWARDRISK6.00 pointsthree times the risk2.00 pointsthe most you loserisk : reward = 1 : 3
Risk and reward on one trade. One trade on a price scale: the entry sits 2.00 points above the stop and 6.00 points below the target, so the shaded reward band is three times the risk band. The ratio compares what is lost if the stop is hit with what is gained if the target is reached.
How it's calculated
The grid across 30% to 70% win rates shows how sensitive each target is to being wrong about your hit rate.
Formulas used by this tool
Directionlong when entry ≥ stop, otherwise short
Risk (1R)|entry − stop|
Rewardtarget − entry for longs; entry − target for shorts
R:Rreward / risk
Expectancy (R)winRate × R:R − (1 − winRate)
Expectancy ($)expectancy (R) × dollars risked per trade
Breakeven win rate1 / (1 + R:R)

Educational only, not financial advice. The maths is simple arithmetic on the numbers you enter; it knows nothing about your broker, fees, slippage or the market. Questions about the maths? Ask in the forums.