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Convenience yield

The intangible benefit of holding the physical commodity rather than a futures claim on it, which pushes curves into backwardation.

A refinery that runs out of crude stops earning money. The value of having barrels on hand — of never having to halt production — is a yield that no futures contract pays. When inventories are tight, that yield rises and nearby prices rise above deferred ones.

It is the missing term that makes the carry formula work: fair futures = spot + carry - convenience yield. High convenience yield is the textbook definition of a tight physical market.

Example: a crude curve in $2 per month backwardation despite $0.50 of monthly carry costs implies a convenience yield around $2.50 a month — the market paying up for barrels now.

Related: cost-of-carry, backwardation, storage-cost, forward-curve, basis

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

Contango and backwardationTwo futures curves against contract expiry: one rising above spot, one falling below it.The same commodity, priced for delivery at different dates.78.0076.0074.0072.0070.00Futures pricespot+1m+2m+3m+4m+5m+6mMonths until the contract expiresspot price74.00CONTANGOlater contracts cost more than spotBACKWARDATIONlater contracts cost less than spot
Contango and backwardation. A futures curve shows what buyers will pay for delivery in one month, two months and so on. When later contracts cost more than the spot price the curve is in contango; when they cost less it is in backwardation.

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