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Forward curve

The set of prices for all listed contract months of a product, plotted from nearest to furthest expiry.

The curve is the market's price of time. Its slope is set by cost-of-carry against convenience-yield, and its shape gets names: upward sloping is contango, downward sloping is backwardation, and real curves often do both at once.

Traders read the curve for positioning as much as for price: a front-end kink that steepens while the back stays flat is a supply story, not a demand story.

Example: a natural gas curve might show $2.90 for October, $3.40 for January, $3.00 for April and $3.10 the following January — winter humps repeating every year, the signature of seasonality.

Related: contango, backwardation, cost-of-carry, convenience-yield

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

Contango and backwardationTwo futures curves against contract expiry: one rising above spot, one falling below it.The same commodity, priced for delivery at different dates.78.0076.0074.0072.0070.00Futures pricespot+1m+2m+3m+4m+5m+6mMonths until the contract expiresspot price74.00CONTANGOlater contracts cost more than spotBACKWARDATIONlater contracts cost less than spot
Contango and backwardation. A futures curve shows what buyers will pay for delivery in one month, two months and so on. When later contracts cost more than the spot price the curve is in contango; when they cost less it is in backwardation.

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