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Guidance cut

Management lowering its own forecast, which markets treat as more serious than a miss because it extends the problem into future periods.

A cut converts a one-quarter disappointment into a multi-quarter repricing, since every forward estimate and therefore the forward-pe has to move. Shares often fall further on the cut than on the accompanying result.

Cuts also tend to cluster. A management team that has misjudged demand once frequently does so again, which is why the first cut in a cycle is rarely the last.

Example: Northwind Tools cuts full-year guidance from $0.98 to $0.88 citing distributor destocking. Shares fall 16%, and the following quarter brings a second cut to $0.82.

Related: guidance, guidance-raise, earnings-miss, estimate-revision, pre-announcement

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