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Forward price-to-earnings

Share price divided by expected earnings per share for the next twelve months or the next fiscal year; the multiple the market actually trades on.

Forward multiples reflect what investors expect rather than what happened, which is why headline valuations quoted in the press are usually forward. They depend entirely on the consensus-estimate, so a forward multiple is only as good as the estimates behind it.

That dependence creates a trap for cyclicals: a stock looks cheap on forward earnings precisely when analysts have not yet cut, and the multiple rises as estimates fall even if the price does not move.

Example: consensus puts Northwind Tools at $0.98 of EPS next year. At $26 the forward multiple is 26.5 times, against 32 times trailing, implying 21% earnings growth.

Related: trailing-pe, consensus-estimate, estimate-revision, peg-ratio, guidance

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