Existing home sales are about 85% of transactions and are recorded when the deal closes, typically 30 to 45 days after the contract. Pending home sales capture the contract stage and therefore lead the existing series. New home sales are recorded at signing, so they react to rates faster.
Volumes matter more than prices for the macro read, because transactions drive the associated spending on brokerage, furnishings and moving. A frozen market with stable prices still subtracts from growth.
Example: mortgage rates rise from 6.2% to 7.4%. On a $400,000 loan the monthly payment rises from about $2,450 to about $2,770, a 13% jump, and existing home sales fall from a 4.3 million to a 3.8 million annualised pace.
Related: housing-starts, leading-indicator, mortgage-backed-security, consumer-confidence, annualised-rate