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Hope as a strategy

Holding a position because you want it to come back, after the reason for holding it has gone.

Hope is what replaces a thesis. The setup has failed, the invalidation is behind you, and the position is still open on the strength of wanting rather than of expecting. The tell is in the language: it should bounce, it has to hold here, it cannot go much lower.

It is the emotional core of bag-holding-psychology and the reason wide stops become no stops. Every tick against you increases the need for the recovery, which increases the hope, which makes closing harder.

The test is the flat question: if I had no position, would I buy this here? If the answer is no, the only thing holding the trade open is hope, and hope has no exit rule attached to it.

Related: bag-holding-psychology, denial, hopium, endowment-effect

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