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Random walk hypothesis

The proposition that price changes are essentially unpredictable from past prices, which if true would make most chart-based forecasting worthless.

The strong version says successive price changes are independent, so no amount of studying history helps. Randomly generated series produce convincing trends, head-and-shoulders patterns and support levels, which is the most uncomfortable demonstration for chartists.

The evidence is mixed rather than settled. Strict randomness is rejected by most studies: volatility clusters, momentum effects appear across many markets and decades, and short-term reversal effects exist. But the predictable component is small and inconsistent.

The honest position for a trader is somewhere in between. Assume most of what you see is noise, demand a large sample-size before believing in an edge, and treat any approach that claims high accuracy as almost certainly mismeasured.

Related: efficient-market-hypothesis, overfitting, technical-analysis, sample-size, elliott-wave-criticism

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