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Technical analysis

Studying price and volume history on a chart to estimate the odds of what happens next, rather than valuing the underlying business.

Technical analysis is the practice of reading a chart of past prices and volume to form a view about future price behaviour. It assumes that everything known about an asset is already reflected in its price, that prices move in recognisable tendencies, and that crowd behaviour repeats often enough to be worth measuring.

In practice it is a toolkit, not a theory: trendlines, support and resistance, candlestick shapes, and indicators like rsi or macd. None of them predict. The honest framing is conditional probability: after a certain pattern, a certain outcome has happened somewhat more often than chance in the data you tested.

Its weaknesses are real. Patterns are identified after the fact, most studies of them fail to survive out-of-sample testing, and any edge that becomes widely known tends to shrink. Treat technical analysis as a way to structure decisions and define risk, not as a forecasting machine.

Related: price-action, chart-clutter, overfitting, indicator-lag, random-walk-hypothesis

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

Support, resistance and the flip between themA price path bouncing three times off a horizontal support line and turning back three times at a resistance line, then breaking above it and settling back onto the same level.RESISTANCESUPPORT62.0056.00breaks aboveold resistance,now supportIllustrative price path: the level stays the same, its role changes.
Support, resistance and the flip. Support is a price where buyers keep stepping in and the fall stops; resistance is a price where sellers keep stepping in and the rise stops. Once price closes above an old ceiling, that same level often acts as the new floor.

Educational only, not advice. Spotted an error? Post in Site Feedback.