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Reverse DCF

Running a discounted cash flow backwards from the current share price to find what growth and margin the market is already assuming.

Instead of producing a target price, a reverse DCF produces a question: is the growth the price implies achievable? That is usually a more answerable question than forecasting ten years of cash flow from scratch.

It is the most practical use of DCF machinery for a trader, because it converts a valuation debate into a testable operating claim that the next few earnings-report releases can confirm or deny.

Example: at $26 with an 8.1% discount rate and 2.5% terminal growth, Northwind Tools must grow unlevered free cash flow about 9.5% a year for ten years. Consensus has it at 11%, so the price embeds slightly less than consensus.

Related: discounted-cash-flow, sensitivity-analysis, consensus-estimate, terminal-value, wacc

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