The published consensus is a simple average of sell-side models, some updated yesterday and some months ago. It is the reference point for earnings-beat and miss headlines and the denominator of forward-pe.
What actually moves the price is the gap between the result and what investors expected, which can differ from published consensus. That unofficial higher bar is the whisper-number.
Example: eleven analysts cover Northwind Tools with EPS estimates from $0.91 to $1.04, averaging $0.98. The range matters as much as the average, since a wide spread means low conviction.
Related: earnings-beat, earnings-miss, whisper-number, forward-pe, estimate-revision