Skip to content
GetProfitable
Search
Dictionary

Volatility arbitrage

Trading the difference between an option's implied volatility and the volatility the underlying is expected to realise, with directional exposure hedged away.

A trader believing implied volatility is too high sells options and delta-hedges, collecting premium and paying out on the hedge as the underlying moves. If realised volatility comes in below what was implied, the hedging cost is less than the premium received and the position profits.

Implied volatility has generally exceeded subsequent realised volatility, a persistent variance risk premium that compensates sellers for taking on crash exposure. Harvesting it therefore looks like collecting small regular gains punctuated by rare large losses, which flatters short track records.

Execution detail dominates results: hedge frequency, transaction costs, and how the position behaves when volatility and the underlying move together. See variance-swap and implied-volatility.

Related: variance-swap, implied-volatility, dispersion-trade, delta, straddle, tail-risk

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

How a call option's delta changes with the underlying priceAn S-shaped curve rising from zero, passing through about a half at the strike, and flattening near one.Delta of a call option1.000.5008090110120Out of the moneyAt the moneyIn the money1.00 means it moves one-for-one with the stockdelta ≈ 0.50 at the strikeStrike 100Underlying price
Delta across the range of prices. Delta says how much a call's price moves for a one-point move in the stock. Far below the strike it is near 0 and the option barely reacts; at the strike it is about 0.50; far above it approaches 1 and tracks the stock.
The volatility smile across strikesImplied volatility plotted against strike, dipping near the money and turning up at both ends, more steeply on the downside.Implied volatility32%28%24%20%8090110120Puts below the money cost moreFar calls cost more tooLowest IV near the moneyATM 100Strike price
The volatility smile. Options on the same stock and the same expiry are not priced off one volatility. Strikes near the money carry the lowest implied volatility, and it rises towards both ends — usually faster on the downside, which tilts the smile into a skew.

Educational only, not advice. Spotted an error? Post in Site Feedback.