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Risk normalisation

Expressing every trade in common risk units so results from different instruments and account sizes can be compared.

Normalisation is what makes a track record legible. A $180 gain in gold and a $180 gain in a small-cap are the same number and completely different trades; expressed as r-multiples - +0.6R and +1.8R - they can finally be added together.

In practice you normalise twice. Size is normalised on the way in, so each trade risks a comparable fraction of equity (unit-sizing or fixed-fractional-sizing). Results are normalised on the way out, by dividing every profit and loss by that trade's initial risk to build an r-distribution.

Without it, portfolio statistics are noise: expectancy is dominated by whichever instrument you happened to trade biggest, and a single oversized winner makes a losing system look profitable.

Related: unit-sizing, r-multiple, expectancy

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

The spread of outcomes behind an expectancyA histogram of forty trades: a tall block of small losses on the left, a low spread of larger wins on the right, and a line marking the average outcome.NUMBER OF TRADES051024 LOSSES, AVG −$20016 WINS, AVG +$600EXPECTANCY +$120−$400−$200$0+$200+$400+$600+$800PROFIT OR LOSS PER TRADEexpectancy = (40% × $600) − (60% × $200) = +$120 per trade
Expectancy: the average trade. Forty trades sorted by outcome: 24 small losses and 16 larger wins. Weighting each side by how often it happens gives the average result per trade, marked here by the dashed line at +$120.
How a position size is worked outAccount size, risk per trade and stop distance feed into one box giving the number of shares.ACCOUNT SIZE$25,000your capitalRISK PER TRADE1%of the accountSTOP DISTANCE$0.50entry to stopPOSITION SIZE500 sharesrisk budget: $25,000 × 1% = $250position size: $250 ÷ $0.50 = 500 shares
Working out a position size. Three numbers decide how big a trade is: the account, the share of it put at risk, and the distance from entry to stop. One percent of $25,000 is a $250 budget, and a $0.50 stop divides into that 500 times.

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